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De'Andre Hunter took care of business Wednesday and Jerami Grant went ballistic in probably the biggest prop-bet related layup I've seen on DraftKings to date, but Joel Embiid's massive fourth quarter against Washington took a little bit of shine off an otherwise awesome day. Friday's slate is a bit tricky with a couple of injuries possibly complicating matters and a number of games that could reach blowout status before a few players have the chance to hit their overs.
Points Props
I think there's far more points prop bets that I like compared to anything in rebounds, assists or the combined totals, so assume any point overs I mention could just as easily be combined into PRA bets for better value if you feel bold.
First though, I think Daniel Theis really should be primed to score more than 10.5 points (-110) against the Wizards. We just saw Embiid eviscerate Washington on Wednesday and with Tristan Thompson, Robert Williams and Grant Williams all out due to the seven-day quarantine period, I have to imagine Theis' minutes will be substantial.
Donte DiVincenzo has cooled off after a hot start to the season, but the 3-point shooting should be back on display against the Jazz, meaning the over at 9.5 points (-121) is an intriguing figure. That should be a relatively easy bar to clear, but I think the better bet would be to take his over at 1.5 made threes (-110) instead. It's always risky business when assuming a player will make threes against a NBA defense, but the Jazz do allow the highest percentage of made threes to opposing shooting guards (45.1 percent) in the league as a result of their aggressive defense near the paint and I think DiVincenzo will see enough minutes in a competitive game to have opportunities.
I'm pretty enamored with the over on both Nikola Vucevic's assist totals (over 3.5 set at -143) and points (over 21.5 set at +105). The Raptors are miserable at stopping opposing power forwards, allowing the third-most points to the position at 25.8 points-per-game, but with Aaron Gordon (hamstring) out, Vucevic is seeing a near 30-percent usage rate which should come mostly in the paint.
After burning me in my first write up, I'm ready to be hurt again, but this time I'm taking Devonte' Graham under 14.5 points (-139) against the Pelicans. New Orleans allows just 19.4 points per game to opposing point guards, tied for second-best in the league, and Graham has also been ceding time to LaMelo Ball...who just so happens to be playing his brother for the first time at the professional level.
Finally, I feel pretty confident Anthony Davis will hit the over on his point total of 24.5 (-110) so long as the Bulls can keep the game relatively competitive against the Lakers. That's probably a tall task since Vegas rightfully has the defending champs favored by 9.5 points, the largest margin on Friday's slate, but I'd contend that the Lakers will need AD in order to hit that mark anyway. The Bulls allow the most points to power forwards per game (28.2) and it's only gotten worse with Lauri Markkanen out (COVID-19 isolation). I don't really think DraftKings is baking in the scoring possibilities with Davis' PRA (37.5), but with the odds the same, I think the points have a better shot of happening as opposed to the cumulative total.
Assists/Rebounds Props
This is more just because I like the odds, but taking the over on John Wall's PRA (34.5, +121) seems like something closer to 50/50. DraftKings seems to think James Harden is going to have a monster game just going off his point total (o/u 29.5), but the Magic allow top-10 figures to opposing point guards in points, rebounds and assists. Wall has attempted at least 20 field goals in three of his four games this season and it's not as if that total is boosted by a fast-pace Rockets offense either. It's not quite as enticing as Jerami Grant's figure from Wednesday, but the odds are too good for me to not at least bet something on the PRA total.
There's also room to take advantage of a couple of rebound prop bets on the side of the Clippers. This is probably more for parlay purposes, but taking the over on Paul George's rebounding total (5.5, over at -152) is a preposterous slam dunk. The All-Star has hit that figure in four of the last five games and also faces a Warriors squad that allows the most rebounds to shooting guards per game across the entire NBA (8.2).
Conversely, I think you can take the under on Kawhi Leonard's rebounding totals (7.5, -110) without much concern. The Warriors allow the second-most rebounds to small forward (9.9 per game), but Leonard hasn't been a major part of controlling the glass, averaging what would be his lowest rebounding totals since his rookie year save for his final season with the Spurs where he played just nine games. Perhaps George and Leonard's rebounding totals correlate to the point where you could put some sort of same-game parlay down most nights, but at least relative to the odds listed Friday, I think both are comfortable bets.
Friday Locks
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- Daniel Theis over 10.5 points (-110)
- Nikola Vucevic over 21.5 points (+105)
- Nikola Vucevic over 3.5 assists (-143)
- Paul George over 5.5 rebounds (-152)
- Kawhi Leonard under 7.5 rebounds (-110)
This article is part of our DraftKings Sportsbook series.
Is there a happier day in the year than Super Bowl Sunday? Your significant other's birthday? No. Mother's Day? No. Father's Day? No. Birth of your child? It's kind of a coin flip if we're being honest (kidding!). Be sure to check out all the Promos DraftKings offers here.
Let's look at what wagers I like for the big day at the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Game
Chiefs to Win -162
There's a little voice in my head reminding me that the offensive line for Kansas City is banged up, but I can't bet against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. If I take the points, the odds are -115, so the difference in the vig doesn't matter much to me. I usually never take the favorite in the Super Bowl — this an exception I believe in. Also, while this totally doesn't mean anything, I feel like a lot of champions in sports were the chalky favorites this last year, as the Chiefs are.
Over 56 Points (-108)
Taking the over is always fun as the average fan definitely roots for a high-scoring game over a defensive battle. The other advantage is that once the over hits, it's done — you can't take points off the board. I think the offenses are both good enough to move up and down the field and this becomes a shootout.
MVP Antonio Brown (+6000, DK)
I realize that Mike Evans or Chris Godwin have a slightly better chance of beating out Brown, but I like these odds much better. Brown's Week 17 line (15-11-138-2) shows his upside, and putting that up Sunday would make it hard to pass him over should the Buccaneers win.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes Over 325.5 Passing Yards (-118)
I'm worried about the offensive line and it might be wet (60 percent chance of rain mid-day, though the field presumably will be covered), but with two weeks to prepare the Chiefs should have a plan to protect Mahomes. Perhaps surprisingly, Mahomes has surpassed 400 passing yards just twice this season, but even if the Chiefs get a big lead, they won't put their foot off the gas in this game.
Tom Brady Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-230)
I hate laying these odds, and while I think the Chiefs win and cover it's tough to ignore how good Brady has been in this category. Quick — entering Sunday, how many consecutive games has he hit this prop? If you said six, seven or eight, you'd be wrong. The same with nine. He has 10 in a row with this over, something Patrick Mahomes has done in only four of his last six.
Running Backs
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Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 48.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
This one is going to be way under or way over. I'm backing the former because this line opened at 30.5. I'm not sure what happened in the last 48 hours but I can't find any injury news that would affect the line this way. Darrel Williams has been the top backfield option during the playoffs and it's hard to think the Chiefs will toss him aside now that CEH is healthy.
Leonard Fournette Under 78.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-112)
The over/under for his rushing yards is 48.5, so it seems highly unlikely he gets more than 30 yards receiving. I expect Ronald Jones to out-gain him. I don't think Fournette is even close to being the best running back for Tampa.
Wide Receivers
Sammy Watkins Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-106)
This might be my favorite prop of the week. I've done well picking overs on third wide receivers in the Super Bowl (ahem, Malcolm Mitchell) over the years, and Watkins is my guy this year. He's already been bet down a bit from his -112 mark, and that he hasn't played in three games makes me think this mark should be lower. However, Vegas seems to be tempting people into a sucker bet. Wait as long as possible to bet this as the odds might get even better. I like him to score as well at +260.
Antonio Brown Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Brown has a ton of upside even as the Bucs' third wide receiver. This number seems like a trap given that he's only had 10 receiving yards in the divisional round. However, he's healthier now and topped this mark in four of his five games before then.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce Under 24.5 Fantasy Points (-112)
First, if you like the over on this, bet the anytime touchdown (-175) for Kelce as well. Every time this season Kelce has hit this over (eight times), only once has he not scored. However, stopping Kelce should be a focal point of the Bucs, and this is a big number. He can go 10-144 and this prop will still be the under. Even 9-90-1 line is still under 24.5 fantasy points. I love that DraftKings has fantasy prop bets on players; it's just awesome.
Cameron Brate Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Everyone seems to be focusing on Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce; Brate seems like an afterthought. Brate has 16 targets in the three playoffs games and has hit the over twice in those games. The Chiefs are 25th in defending the tight ends, and while Brate has a back injury, he is expected to play. In the event he's ruled out, run to get Tanner Hudson anytime TD at +2300.
Good luck this Sunday and let me know in the comments section if there are any wagers you like this weekend not mentioned above.